Paul's Props and Touchdowns: 2025 Week 9
Paul Kelly reviews Fantasy Points projections to uncover the biggest mismatches for player prop and touchdown bets. His analysis focuses on finding statistical edges that improve betting decisions over the sportsbooks.
Performance History
- 2021 Player Props Record: 75–47 (61.5%)
- 2022 Player Props Record: 85–68 (55.6%)
- 2023 Player Props Record: 79–59 (57.2%)
- 2024 Player Props Record: 70–50 (58.3%)
- 2025 Player Props Record: 32–18 (64.0%, +10.21 units)
Weekly Insights
Each week, Paul shares his top discrepancy-based player prop recommendations and “anytime” touchdown scorer picks. After a minor setback in Week 8, he aims to rebound strongly in Week 9 with refined selections and careful analysis.
Process Overview
To uncover value, Paul manually compared John Hansen’s player projections to sportsbook prop lines, identifying meaningful gaps. What started as a manual process evolved into an efficient system powered by an internal tool that detects the largest differences.
“I use the tool to find the biggest discrepancies, and then I decide which props I like best – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds.”
Summary
Through data-driven comparisons and strategic betting, Paul Kelly continues to refine his model for maximizing value on weekly Fantasy Points prop and touchdown bets.
Author’s summary: Paul Kelly applies a data-based approach to identify betting value through discrepancies in Fantasy Points projections versus sportsbook lines.