Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in life expectancy at birth (LE) in Western Europe in 2020, with recovery only seen by 2023. Despite being one of the most affected countries, Spain maintained the highest LE in the European Union.
Study Objective
This study aims to analyze changes in Spain's life expectancy from 2019 to 2023 by breaking down contributions by age group and cause of death, and to compare these with changes from the pre-pandemic period 2010–2019.
Methods
Data on life expectancy and mortality rates by age and major causes of death were obtained from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was used to estimate age-specific contributions to LE changes, with proportional attribution to each cause of death.
Results
- Age groups over 20 years showed a negative contribution to LE in 2020 but mostly a positive contribution in the following years.
- Paradoxically, the age groups most affected in 2020 contributed positively to LE changes overall from 2019 to 2023, while those under 45 years old still showed negative contributions.
- Infectious diseases were the main factor in the LE decline in 2020, reducing LE by −1.33 years in the total population.
- The impact was more severe in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years).
"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."
Summary
The pandemic caused a temporary drop in Spain's life expectancy, primarily due to infectious diseases, but most age groups above 20 have since contributed positively to recovery, though younger groups remain affected.
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